A new analysis commissioned by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America indicates that specific campaign messages, particularly those focusing on North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper’s record on abortion, have shifted voter preferences towards Republican candidate Michael Whatley. The study highlighted that messaging centered on potential federal abortion legislation generated the most significant movement among voters in the state.
In light of these findings, the organization has intensified its outreach efforts, reporting contact with over 770,000 households across North Carolina. This initiative is part of a refined voter-engagement strategy designed for what is anticipated to be one of the nation's most closely contested Senate races. Republicans are aiming to retain their majority in the Senate and secure the seat currently held by the retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis.
Messaging Strategy and Candidate Records
Canvassers are specifically targeting individuals considered persuadable and those with lower turnout rates. Their communications emphasize abortion-related issues and scrutinize Cooper's history, including his backing of federal abortion legislation—which the group contends could override existing state-level restrictions—and his actions as governor to veto state measures limiting abortion access.
During his tenure, Governor Cooper vetoed North Carolina’s 2023 legislation that would have prohibited most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy, asserting that the bill would adversely affect women and families. However, the Republican-controlled General Assembly subsequently overrode his veto, allowing the law to come into effect. Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, also pointed to Cooper's veto of a bill designed to provide medical care to infants born alive after an attempted abortion. She stated,
“Those issues contrasted with Michael Whatley helped move voters in the direction of Whatley.”
Study Methodology and Findings
The research sought to identify which specific messages proved most effective in influencing public opinion and to forecast their impact on voters. This allowed the group to pinpoint individuals most inclined to switch their vote from Democratic to Republican after encountering one of their pro-life messages.
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America partnered with Evolving Strategies to conduct a randomized-controlled trial. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of four distinct messages concerning the North Carolina Senate candidates’ positions on abortion. Evolving Strategies assembled an online panel comprising 2,607 verified registered voters within the state, employing a technique that linked respondents to their voter registration and consumer data.
The study gauged participants’ declared support for candidates and policies after they reviewed the messages. Estimates for the most persuadable voters were derived through predictive modeling. Dannenfelser articulated their approach:
“Our one goal when we are finding our targeted voters in any state is to find our best voters. They will end up being Democrats, they'll end up being Republicans, they'll end up being Independents. We don't start with party profile. We don't even start with where you live or what your religious affiliation is. Where we start is how your vote will be moved. So we use consumer data to create a profile of our best voter and we score those voters.”
She further elaborated on their outreach strategy, stating,
“What we're looking for is our best voters, whether they're inclined to vote or not, and then making sure that we communicate them with them at their doors through digital communications and every other form of communication that they receive.”
Participants in the study were randomly assigned to one of four message conditions—the “Fed” message, the “Record” message, the “Soft Positive” message, and the “Hard Positive” message—or a control condition where they received a neutral placebo message. The “Fed” messages criticized Cooper’s support for federal legislation that the organization argued could undermine states’ authority to enact abortion laws. “Record” messages targeted his abortion stance during his governorship, aiming to characterize him as holding extreme views. The “Soft Positive” and “Hard Positive” messages, in contrast, each highlighted Whatley’s pro-life positions.
According to the study's findings, all tested messages demonstrated some level of effectiveness, shifting the Republican vote margin by a net increase ranging from +1.7 to nearly +5 points.
The two messages critical of Cooper yielded the strongest results, with the “Fed” message achieving a +4.9-point shift and the “Record” message a +3.2-point shift. Among the positive messages, the “Hard Positive” message performed considerably better at +3.9 points compared to the “Soft Positive” message, which saw a +1.7-point increase.
For the cohort identified as the prime targets for persuasion, the study projected an even more substantial impact, estimating a net increase of +12 points or more in the Republican vote margin.
Dannenfelser remarked on the efficacy of their approach:
“We are finding that these messages really resonate. We're finding that voters really feel left behind by the Democratic Party, either ones that were leaning Democrat or were thinking about Cooper. We're finding that it really resonates and that it still is a top performing issue in North Carolina and makes a big difference.”
